Three mental models are specifically suited toward our purpose of practical intelligence and acting within the bounds of common sense. First, we discuss the difference between evaluating a process versus an outcome. Often we can fall into the trap of outcome bias, wherein we ignore our decision process simply because something turned out favorably. Second, we learn to tell stories in reverse using the fishbone diagram analysis. This is a powerful tool to deal with the problem of cause and effect and illuminate our thinking to the possibilities of alternative perspectives. Third, we come to separating correlation from causation, and understanding the true relationships between events we observe.

Continue reading “Process Versus Outcome”