Mental Model #24: Murphy’s Law: Anything that can go wrong will go wrong, so make sure it doesn’t have the opportunity. Don’t rely on just getting by; make sure that you are as fail-safe as possible.
Mental Model #25: Occam’s Razor: The simplest explanation with the fewest variables is most likely to be the correct one. Our instinct is to go for the most mentally available explanation, which says more about what we want to see or avoid.